NEWS EXIT POLLS BIHAR
KS Shankar / IHN-NN
NEW DELHI/ PATNA: The wind is blowing in favour of the Rashtriya Janata Dal-led Grand Alliance (Mahagatbandhan) in Bihar, which may win a majority — more than 122 seats — in the 243-member state assembly, as per several exit poll results. The exit-poll results were released in a flurry on Saturday evening soon after the polling ended for the third and final phase of the assembly polls in the state.
Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and his National Democratic Alliance, consisting of the BJP and the JDU, will fall short of the majority mark, these polls concluded. However, there were also some exit polls that predicted the upper hand to the BJP-JDU alliance, meaning the NDA.
The Exit polls generally indicated that the RJD could emerge as the single largest party; and, worse come to worse, there could also be a hung house. The halfway mark for a simple majority is 122. The mass response at rallies of rival political formations was also hinting that the RJD was riding the crest of a popular wave, perhaps even a sectarian wave, and CM Nitish Kumar who ruled the state for the past 15 years was largely put on the defensive.
The actual results of assembly elections, the first elections after the start of the Covid-19 pandemic in March last, will be declared after counting on November 10. Opinion polls in the past had gone wrong, and the NDA is hopeful it will have the last laugh.
According to Times Now-CVoter exit poll, the NDA will get 116 seats while the Grand Alliance is projected to bag 120.
The Republic TV-Jan ki Baat exit poll has projected a win for the Mahagatbandhan with 138 seats, while it concluded that the NDA will get between 91 and 117 seats, and the Congress and the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) were likely to get 5 and 8 seats respectively. Others, like the Left, could get some three to six seats, the poll projections said.
According to the India TV Axis Poll, veteran Lalu Prasad’s son Tejashwi Yadav, who single-handedly steered the RJD campaign, is the preferred chief minister. While 110 seats were seen going into the account of the Grand Alliance that he leads, which is also known as Mahagatbandhan, the Congress was projected to get 25 seats and the RJD 85 seats. It said 112 seats would be won by the ruling NDA in which BJP is projected to bag 70 and JD (U) 42 seats.
According to the CNN News 18-Todays Chanakya, the Mahagatbandhan is headed for a clear win with 180 seats, compared to 55 for the NDA.Today’s Chanakya gives the RJD-Congress alliance 44 per cent vote share, the BJP- JDU+ some 34 per cent and others 22 per cent. The prediction has a 3 percent error margin.
The exit poll TV9 Bharatvarsh projected 115 seats for the NDA and 120 for the Grand Alliance while it indicated four seats going to the LJP led by Chirag Pawan and four to the account of others.
The first phase of voting took place on October 28 and the second phase on November 3 and the last phase today.
The Bihar election is being seen as a referendum on long-time Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, whose JD(U) is in alliance with the BJP-led NDA. In the 2015 election, the JD(U) was part of the Mahagatandhan. The ruling NDA alliance faces a stiff challenge from the RJD-led Mahagatbandhan.
With Chirag Paswan’s LJP, a part of the NDA, deciding to go it alone in the present elections, it targeted the JDU in all the constituencies the regional ruling party put up candidates, openly to settle scores with Nitish Kumar. There are those who suspect this was a BJP game to rob Nitish of the CM post.
Some 48 per cent of people in the age group of 61 years and above want the NDA to form the next government in Bihar, as per one exit poll. –IHN-NN
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