ECONOMIC SURVEY 2019 — Survey predicts growth at 7 % in 2019-20 fiscal


NEW DELHI: The Union Government has tabled the economic survey report in Parliament. It predicts 7 percent GDP growth in financial year 2019-20, on stable macro-economic conditions. It stresses India is the fastest-growing economy. The report was presented by Union finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman. The Union Budget will be presented by her tomorrow, Friday. 

GDP growth has averaged a high of 7.5 per cent in the last five years. India needs to grow at 8 percent per annum to become a $5 trillion economy by FY25, the report notes.

General fiscal deficit seen at 5.8 percent in FY19 against 6.4 percent in FY18. Sensex gains 100 points. Nifty nears 11,950.

The report says lower global oil prices will boost consumption.

The decline in the non-performing assets (NPAs) should help push the capital expenditure cycle, it said.

Stress in the Non Banking Financial Company (NBFC) sector was also a reason for FY19 growth slowdown. Positive signs in investment activity seem to be taking hold, the report noted.


GDP GROWTH: Growth in service exports and imports in US dollar terms declined to 5.5% and 6.7% respectively in 2018-19.

MATERNAL MORTALITY: Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) of India has declined by 37 points from 167 per lakh live births in 2011-13 to 130 per lakh live births in 2014-16, in a span of three years. Between 1990 and 2015, MMR in India has declined by 77 per cent as compared to 44 per cent decline in global average.

SCHOOLS, GIRLS: Over the years, remarkable progress has been made in respect of female participation up-to secondary level and Gross Enrollment Rate for girls has exceeded that of boys. But girls’ enrolment rate is lower than that of boys at the higher education level. At this level, the gap is visible across the social categories too.

UNEMPLOYMENT: The unemployment rate (UR) in India stood at 6.1 per cent with 5.3 per cent in rural areas and 7.8 per cent in urban areas as per usual status. As per CWS, the UR was 8.9 per cent with 8.5 per cent in rural areas and 9.6 per cent in urban areas. The net employment generation in the formal sector was higher at 8.15 lakh in March 2019 against 4.87 lakh in Feb 2018. 

HDI: As per the UNDP Human Development Index (HDI), India is ranked 130 among 189 countries.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE: India’s foreign exchange reserves continue to be comfortably placed at US$ 422.2 billion, as on 14th June 2019

NPAs: NPAs as a percentage of SCBs decreased from 11.5% to 10.1% b/w Mar 2018 & Dec 2018

AGRI PRODUCTION: Farmers may have produced less in FY19 on food price fall.

FISCAL DEFICIT: General Fiscal Deficit seen at 5.8% in FY19 vs 6.4% in FY18.

FDI: FDI inflows grew by 14.2% in 2018-19.

MANUFACTURING: Share of informal sector to manufacturing growth decreased in FY19. Decline in NPAs should push up CAPEX cycle. Oil prices seen declining.


SCHOOLS: The Pupil Teacher Ratio (PTR) at national level for primary schools is 23, 17 for upper primary, 27 for secondary and 37 for senior secondary schools. While the PTR appears to be satisfactory, it is clear that while there are sufficient teachers, the main issue is their balanced deployment based on student strength.

FILM WORLD: India is the world’s biggest producer of films with 1,776 domestic film releases in 2018. Indian film industry grew at 12 per cent in 2018 with revenue of Rs 17,450 thousand crore.

TV PENETRATION: Out of the estimated 29.8 crore households in India, TV penetration reached 66 per cent in the country with 19.7 crore TV households in 2018, which is 7.7 per cent increase over the previous Broadcast India Survey 2016. Overall tele-density is 90.10%, Rural tele-density is 57.50% and Urban tele-density is 159.66% at the end of March 2019.

ROADS: Road construction in kms grew at 30 kms per day in 2018-19 as compared to 12 kms per day in 2014-15.

UDAN: UDAN has provided connectivity to 23 unserved airports out of the aim to operationalize 100 by the year 2026-27.

LPG CONNECTIONS: The original target of issuing 5 crore LPG connections was achieved by 3 August, 2018, eight months in advance of the target. More than 7.189 crore LPG connections have been released under this scheme as of 31 March, 2019.

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: The Unemployment Rate was 8.9% with 8.5% in rural areas and 9.6% in urban areas.

CLEAN GANGA: National mission to clean Ganga: 143 ghats have been taken up under the Mission out of which 100 have been completed. The massive afforestation drive undertaken in the five Ganga States has led to increase in forested area of 8,631 hectares. The organic pollution load on the river has decreased from 263 kg/MLD in 2011-12 to 65.24 kg/MLD in 2018-19. –IHN-NN


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